New Tool Predicts 10-Year Heart Risk in Type 2 Diabetics

Pen-and-paper estimator coincides 82 percent with electronic British instrument

THURSDAY, June 1 (HealthDay News) -- A pen-and-paper estimator of 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk for type 2 diabetics accurately predicts CHD in four out of five cases, researchers report in the May issue of the Mayo Clinic Proceedings.

Victor Montori, M.D., of the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine in Rochester, Minn., and colleagues created a pen-and-paper estimator of 10-year CHD risk for 535 type 2 diabetes patients involved in a clinical trial in Rochester, Minn., between July 2001 and December 2003.

The researchers found that for 400 of the patients, their risk estimator coincided 82 percent with an electronic instrument estimating similar risk for 4,000 British diabetics, overestimating risk by 11 percent and underestimating it by 7 percent. Results were similar in two separate validation groups of 135 and 52 patients.

"The pen-and-paper estimator facilitates the point-of-care estimation of coronary risk in situations in which use of a desktop or handheld version of the electronic United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine is not practical or feasible," the authors write. "In our experience, estimation of risk using this tool, when done with patients, can further patients' insight into their risk of coronary events, often leading to enlightened discussions about modification of individual risk factors."

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Clare Kittredge

Clare Kittredge

Updated on June 01, 2006

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