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Diabetes Incidence Projected to Double in 25 Years

Research suggests costs associated with type 2 diabetes projected to triple by 2034

MONDAY, Nov. 30 (HealthDay News) -- The number of patients with type 2 diabetes is projected to double over the next 25 years, and the associated costs are estimated to triple, according to a study in the December issue of Diabetes Care.

Elbert S. Huang, M.D., from the University of Chicago, and colleagues developed a model to predict the incidence of type 2 diabetes and future direct spending on diabetes based on data from adults with diabetes from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and National Health Interview Survey.

The researchers estimated that the number of people with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes would rise from 23.7 million in 2009 to 44.1 million in 2034. Yearly diabetes-related spending would rise from $113 billion to $336 billion in 2007 dollars over this period. Among patients eligible for Medicare, the diabetic population is expected to rise from 8.2 million to 14.6 million, and associated yearly costs from $45 billion to $171 billion.

"The diabetes population and the related costs are expected to at least double in the next 25 years," Huang and colleagues conclude. "Without significant changes in public or private strategies, this population and cost growth are expected to add a significant strain to an overburdened health care system."

The investigators received support for this project as consultants to the National Changing Diabetes Program of Novo Nordisk, which participated in the final approval of the manuscript before submission, but was not involved in preparing the manuscript.

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