Model Predicts Hospital Admissions in Patients Over 40

Medical practices can use tool to identify case management opportunities

TUESDAY, July 15 (HealthDay News) -- A population model can predict urgent hospital admissions for patients 40 years of age and older based on prior admissions and medication use, according to an article published in the July 14 issue of the Archives of Internal Medicine.

Peter T. Donnan, Ph.D., of the Tayside Centre for General Practice, Community Health Sciences in Dundee, Scotland, and colleagues performed a historical cohort observational study from 1996 to 2004 using the population of Tayside, Scotland. The data set was split in half to develop derivation and test data sets. Logistic regression was used to predict hospital admission in patients over 40 years of age.

In the derivation data set (n=90,522), 6,793 participants (7.5 percent) experienced an emergency hospital admission, the researchers report. Age, male gender, low socioeconomic status, prescription of analgesics, antibacterials, nitrates and diuretics were strong predictors of admission. Additionally, the total number of respiratory medications, previous admissions and total hospital days also predicted admission, the report indicates.

The model "provides a useful tool for the individual clinician in face-to-face consultation as well the general practice as a whole, and for health insurers, policy makers and planners at the health board level faced with the increasing prevalence of hospital use," according to the authors. "The model can be implemented at individual patient level as well as family practice level to target case management."

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