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Breast Cancer Incidence Increasing in China

More than 100 new cases per 100,000 women aged 55 to 69 expected by 2021

FRIDAY, Sept. 26 (HealthDay News) -- China is on the verge of a breast cancer epidemic, with 2.5 million postmenopausal cases anticipated by the year 2021, according to the results of a study published in the Oct. 1 issue of the Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

Using data from the Chinese National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey, Eleni Linos, M.D., of Stanford University School of Medicine in Stanford, Calif., and colleagues applied the Rosner-Colditz log-incidence breast cancer model to a representative sample of Chinese women who were aged 35 to 49 years in 2001, and who participated in the Shanghai Women's Health Study cohort (74,942 women). The investigators predicted the age-specific and cumulative breast cancer incidence among all Chinese women of this age group, adjusting for risk factors.

According to the model, there will be 146 cases of breast cancer within the sample of 17,078 women by 2011 and the researchers predict that 326 cases would occur by 2021. Applying the rates to 130 million women countrywide, they predict more than 100 new cases per 100,000 women aged 55 to 69 years by 2021. The current rates are estimated at 10 to 60 cases per 100,000 women, the authors note. The investigators also predict 2.5 million cases of breast cancer by 2021 among Chinese women who were 35 to 49 in 2001.

"Weight maintenance and avoidance of alcohol and postmenopausal hormones may form targets for public health interventions and be used to mitigate the future burden of this disease," the authors write.

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