Modeling Studies Show Cervical Cancer Could Be Eliminated

And mortality could be reduced by about one-third by 2030 and almost completely by 2120

pre-teen girl getting vaccinated

TUESDAY, Feb. 4, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- Two modeling studies show how cervical cancer could be eliminated and mortality could be reduced, according to two studies published online Jan. 30 in The Lancet.

Marc Brisson, Ph.D., from Laval University in Quebec City, and colleagues examined the projected reductions in cervical cancer incidence over time in 78 low-income and lower middle-income countries (LMICs) for girls-only human papillomavirus vaccination (at age 9 years) and girls-only vaccination and once- or twice-lifetime screening. The researchers found that the predicted reduction in median age-standardized cervical cancer incidence was from 19.8 to 2.1 cases per 100,000 women-years (89.4 percent) with girls-only HPV vaccination, with 61 million cases averted during the next century. The incidence was further reduced to 0.7 cases per 100,000 women-years by adding twice-lifetime screening (96.7 percent reduction), and an extra 12.1 million cases would be averted. Depending on the threshold and region, elimination could occur between 2059 and 2102.

Karen Canfell, D.Phil., from the Cancer Council New South Wales in Sydney, and colleagues estimated the reductions in age-standardized mortality in 78 LMICs for girls-only vaccination and girls-only vaccination plus once- or twice-lifetime screening and cancer treatment scale-up. The researchers found that by 2030, vaccination alone would have a minimal impact versus the status quo, leading to a 0.1 percent reduction in mortality; mortality would be reduced by 34.2 percent by the addition of twice-lifetime screening and cancer treatment, averting 300,000 deaths by 2030. By 2120, vaccination alone would reduce mortality by 89.5 percent; additional scaling-up screening and cancer treatment would reduce mortality by 97.9 or 98.6 percent with once- or twice-lifetime screening, respectively.

"Considerable progress can be made in reducing the intolerable and preventable global burden of cervical cancer," write the authors of an accompanying editorial.

Two authors from both studies disclosed financial ties to the biopharmaceutical industry.

Abstract/Full Text - Brisson
Abstract/Full Text - Canfell
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