THURSDAY, July 30 (HealthDay News) -- A model developed to predict the 15-year risk of dying of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy shows that the risk is very low, particularly in more recent patients treated in the era of widespread prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, according to a study published online July 27 in the Journal of Clinical Oncology.
Andrew J. Stephenson, M.D., from the Cleveland Clinic, and colleagues developed a model to predict the long-term risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) using clinical information and treatment outcome from 12,677 patients treated with radical prostatectomy.
The researchers determined that the 15-year PCSM was 12 percent and all-cause mortality was 38 percent. The predicted PCSM ranged from 5 to 38 percent, but was less than 5 percent in 96 percent of contemporary patients. Biopsy Gleason grade, PSA, and year of surgery predicted PCSM and were used to develop a nomogram to predict 15-year PCSM with a concordance index of 0.82.
"In summary, the long-term risk of PCSM among patients treated with radical prostatectomy in the era of widespread PSA screening is low, even for patients with adverse clinical features," Stephenson and colleagues conclude.
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