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Model Predicts Higher Breast Cancer Risk in Black Women

Predicted risk higher than a widely used model

TUESDAY, Nov. 27 (HealthDay News) -- A new model to predict breast cancer risk for counseling and clinical trials gives higher risk estimates for black women compared with a widely used model, according to the results of a study published in the Dec. 5 issue of the Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

Mitchell H. Gail, M.D., Ph.D., from the National Cancer Institute in Bethesda, Md., and colleagues compared two models for their ability to predict breast cancer risk in black women: a model they had developed (the CARE model) and the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool of the National Cancer Institute. The CARE model was based on data from 1,607 black women with breast cancer and 1,647 controls, as well as data on invasive breast cancer incidence and mortality.

The researchers found that some relative and attributable risks, as well as discriminatory accuracy, were lower in the CARE model. Based on eligibility screening data from a breast cancer trial, they estimated that more black women would have five-year invasive breast cancer risks of at least 1.66 percent using the CARE model than the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (30.3 versus 14.5 percent). In general, the CARE model accurately predicted the number of cancers.

"The CARE model usually gave higher risk estimates for African American women than the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool and is recommended for counseling African American women regarding their risk of breast cancer," Gail and colleagues conclude.

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