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Nomogram Predicts Death Recurrence With Thyroid Cancer

Excellent accuracy for 10-year disease-specific death, recurrence

WEDNESDAY, Sept. 30, 2015 (HealthDay News) -- A new nomogram has excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), according to a study published online Sept. 2 in Head & Neck.

Brian H.H. Lang, from the University of Hong Kong, and colleagues developed and validated a nomogram to provide individualized prognosis (death and recurrence) for PTC.

The researchers found that the nomogram had excellent discrimination in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence (0.984 and 0.743, respectively). One-hundred percent of the patients surviving at 10 years had a score <30, and those who died within 10 years had a score ≥30. Almost all the patients (91.04 percent) were disease-free within 10 years with a score of <17.

"Using a competing-risk model, a nomogram was created with excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence for PTC," the authors write. "Our results implied its potential for wider use in other populations."

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