Flu Season a Mild One... So Far

Experts caution the worst may be yet to come

FRIDAY, Jan. 7, 2005 (HealthDayNews) -- While this year's flu season has been a mild one so far, experts warn that things could take a nasty turn at any time.

"Overall, we're seeing a mild season but the flu season is so unpredictable that it doesn't mean we can't have that turn around within the upcoming weeks," said Llelwyn Grant, a spokesman for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"We are slowly building up. I expect that, over the next few weeks, it's probably going to ramp up quite a bit," added Dr. Jonathan McCullers, assistant member of infectious diseases at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn.

McCullers' prediction rests partly on the particular strain of virus, H3N2, prevalent this year. "The years where H3N2 is the predominant virus are typically much worse than when the other two types of virus circulate," he said. "We see a lot more infections, a lot more serious complications, a lot more deaths during those years."

Currently, CDC tracking records show about 2.4 percent of U.S. hospital visits are attributable to influenza-like illnesses, compared to 7 percent at this time last year. To show how mercurial the flu can be, in 2002, the rate was 2.4 percent.

Some areas, particularly in the Northeast, are faring worse. New York state has reported considerable statewide activity. The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene is reporting twice as many visits for flu-like illness to local emergency departments since early December. There have been more than 40 outbreaks in city nursing homes and other institutional settings since October, more than were seen all of last season, the department reported.

The severity of this year's flu vaccine shortage has lessened in recent weeks, and the CDC has consequently expanded its high-priority recommendations to include adults 50 and older as well as people in contact with high-risk individuals. Previously, the CDC said flu shots should only be given to adults 65 and older, as well as children less than 2 years old, pregnant women and people with chronic health conditions. The new recommendations took effect Jan. 3.

"Basically we have softened it a bit, where if states have fulfilled their outreach to high-priority risks, they could expand to adults 50 and older and those who have household contact with high-priority individuals," Grant said.

Local areas seem to be following suit. New York City has expanded flu shot eligibility to include people 50 and older as long as supplies permit. New Mexico also has eased restrictions, adding adults 50 and older and children 5 and younger to the list of people who should get vaccines.

In early October, federal health officials announced that the nation's anticipated supply of 105 million flu shots had been slashed by nearly half after a key manufacturer detected bacterial contamination in this year's batch. Of the initial stock, 3.5 million to 3.6 million doses still need to be distributed, Grant said, adding, "They should be available by mid-January."

The drug maker Aventis has also agreed to provide 3 million additional doses from a surplus, which should be available in January. Finally, 1.2 million doses of vaccine under an investigational new drug application will be available from GlaxoSmithKline's German facility. And there are still about 2 million available doses of FluMist, a nasal spray flu vaccine, according to Grant. The maker of FluMist, MedImmune Inc., agreed to produce 3 million doses of the vaccine for this flu season with the encouragement of U.S. health officials. The fact that the company has only been able to sell 1 million doses highlights many Americans' reluctance to try the nasal spray alternative, the Washington Post reported Friday.

Health experts are urging people to continue getting vaccinated. "This is actually a good time to vaccinate," said Dr. Marc Siegel, a clinical associate professor of medicine at New York University School of Medicine. "We had a distribution problem and we have less of one now."

McCullers added: "We need to make sure that we use all the vaccine we can. We've done a decent job of vaccinating most of the high-risk persons although there are still one-third to one-half who haven't been vaccinated and we still have vaccine left over. We need to use it all up."

"We need to get over our apathy that the big flu hasn't hit yet and maybe we're safe, and get rid of all the vaccine," he continued.

St. Jude started administering its remaining vaccine stock to all employees on Jan. 6.

Last year, the flu season peaked early, in December. Usually, it peaks at the end of January, Siegel said. "This year people think it's over, but it's not," he said.

Each year approximately 200,000 Americans are hospitalized due to flu complications, and about 36,000 people die, according to the CDC.

More information

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more details on the flu.

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