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New Score Predicts Adverse COVID-19 Events in Outpatient Setting

Top five predictors were age, diastolic BP, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, respiratory rate

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MONDAY, Nov. 2, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- The COVID-19 Acuity Score (CoVA) is a validated score that predicts adverse COVID-19 events in the outpatient setting, according to a study published online Oct. 24 in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.

Haoqi Sun, Ph.D., from Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, and colleagues developed the CoVA based on adult outpatients seen in respiratory illness clinics or the emergency department at a single health care center. The score was developed using data from the Partners Enterprise Data Warehouse (9,381 patients; March 7 to May 2) and was validated prospectively in a second cohort from the same data warehouse (2,205 patients; May 3 to 14). Outcomes of interest included hospitalization, critical illness (intensive care unit admission or ventilation), or death within seven days.

The researchers found that in the prospective cohort, 26.1 percent experienced hospitalization, 6.3 percent critical illness, and 0.5 percent death. For hospitalization, CoVA showed excellent performance in the prospective cohort (expected-to-observed ratio [E/O], 1.01; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.76). Performance was similar for critical illness (E/O, 1.03; AUC, 0.79) and for death (E/O, 1.63; AUC, 0.93). The top five of 30 predictors were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, and respiratory rate.

"CoVA is designed so that automated scoring could be incorporated into electronic medical record systems," a coauthor said in a statement. "We hope that it will be useful in case of future COVID-19 surges, when rapid clinical assessments may be critical."

Abstract/Full Text

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