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Calculator May Help Predict Individual Chances of IVF Success

Provides individualized estimate of a couple's cumulative chances of having a baby

human sperm and egg

FRIDAY, Nov. 18, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Free online calculators can predict how likely a woman is to have a baby after a series of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment cycles, according to a study published online Nov. 16 in The BMJ.

David McLernon, Ph.D., a research fellow in medical statistics at the University of Aberdeen in the United Kingdom, and colleagues developed the calculators, which are available online for free. The researchers created their calculators after examining the experiences of 113,873 women who started IVF treatment in the United Kingdom between 1999 and 2008, using their own eggs and their partner's sperm. Slightly less than a third (29.1 percent) had a baby after the first try and 43.0 percent were successful after as many as six tries.

One of the calculators uses information available before the start of IVF -- such as the woman's age and the cause of the fertility problem -- to predict the overall chance of having the first IVF baby over six cycles of treatment, McLernon told HealthDay "The second calculator updates these predictions using information available at the first treatment attempt, such as the number of eggs that were collected and the number of embryos that were transferred," he said.

"This study provides an individualized estimate of a couple's cumulative chances of having a baby over a complete package of IVF both before treatment and after the first fresh embryo transfer," the authors write. "This novel resource may help couples plan their treatment and prepare emotionally and financially for their IVF journey."

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