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Index Predicts Hip Fracture, Mortality in Older Women

Women with all four factors have a 9.5-fold greater risk of mortality

THURSDAY, Feb. 1 (HealthDay News) -- A four-item index based on age, weight, previous fracture and mobility can predict the risk of hip fracture and mortality in women aged 70 and older, according to a report in the January/February issue of the Annals of Family Medicine.

Daniel M. Albertsson, M.D., of the Kronoberg County Council in Vaxjo, Sweden, and colleagues surveyed 1,248 women, aged 70 years or older, regarding risk factors for hip fracture. The data were used to develop a four-item risk model termed the FRAMO Index, based on an age of at least 80 years, weight greater than 60 kg, having had a previous fragility fracture, and needing to use arms to rise from the sitting position. The predictive value of the index was assessed over the next two years.

The researchers found that the risk of hip fracture and mortality increased with the number of risk factors. Women with one or no risk factors had a 0.8 percent risk of hip fracture and a 3.2 percent risk of mortality, while women with two to four risk factors had risks of 5.4 percent for hip fracture and 23.7 percent mortality risk (odds ratios of 7.5 and 9.5, respectively).

"The FRAMO Index identified the majority of women who experienced hip fractures during a two-year follow-up, who might have been candidates for intensified preventive measures," Albertsson and colleagues conclude. "The FRAMO Index, based on four binary risk factors, would be practical for routine use in primary care."

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