Knee Arthroplasties to Surge 673 Percent by 2030

Knee replacement surgery expected to outstrip hip replacement after 2007

THURSDAY, April 5 (HealthDay News) -- The demand for primary total knee arthroplasties is expected to reach 3.48 million by 2030 in the United States, an increase of 673 percent, and should exceed the demand for hip replacement surgery, according to a report in the April issue of the Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Steven Kurtz, Ph.D., of Exponent, Inc. in Philadelphia, and colleagues studied national patient data from 1990 to 2003, plus U.S. Census Bureau and population forecasts through 2030.

By 2030, the researchers project, demand for primary total knee arthroplasties will reach 3.48 million; demand for primary total hip arthroplasties will increase 174 percent to 572,000. Demand for knee revisions and hip revisions will double by 2015 and 2026, respectively. The demand for knee revision surgery is expected to exceed the demand for hip revisions next year, researchers predict. From 2005 to 2030, total knee and hip revision surgeries should increase by 601 percent and 137 percent, respectively.

"These large projected increases in demand for total hip and knee arthroplasties provide a quantitative basis for future policy decisions related to the numbers of orthopaedic surgeons needed to perform these procedures and the deployment of appropriate resources to serve this need," the authors write.

Abstract
Full Text (subscription or payment may be required)

Physician's Briefing