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Surge in Hip, Knee Replacement Surgery Projected

Demand for knee replacements expected to rise from 428,000 in 2005 to 2.16 million in 2030

FRIDAY, March 24 (HealthDay News) -- The demand for total hip and knee replacement surgeries as well as revision procedures is expected to skyrocket in the next quarter century, researchers reported at the annual meeting of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons in Chicago.

Steven M. Kurtz, Ph.D., of the Philadelphia office of Exponent, Inc., and colleagues combined national patient and U.S. Census data to project demand for future surgeries. The researchers predict demand for total knee arthroplasty will double by 2016, and revision knee procedures will increase 552 percent to 195,000 procedures in 2030. Total hip arthroplasty revisions will grow 237 percent from 41,000 in 2005 to 98,000 in 2030.

They predict that primary total hip arthroplasties will grow from 201,000 in 2005 to 453,000 in 2030, and that primary total knee arthroplasties will increase to 2.16 million procedures in 2030, up from 428,000 in 2005.

"This study provides, for the first time, quantification of the future number of revisions in the United States through 2030," the authors write. "The projections demonstrate a massive expected demand for primary and revision surgeries in the next two decades, a demand that will need to be addressed with a combination of increased economic resources, operative efficiency, technical capacity (i.e., additional surgeons) and implant longevity."

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