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Formula Predicts Fracture Risk Using Bone Density, Falls

FRISK, or fracture risk score, can be used for women over 60

TUESDAY, Sept. 26 (HealthDay News) -- Researchers have developed a fracture risk score, or FRISK, that uses multiple bone mineral density measurements, falls, prior fractures and weight to predict older women's risk of breaking a bone in the near future, according to a study in the September issue of Radiology.

Margaret Joy Henry, Ph.D., of the University of Melbourne, Australia, and colleagues measured the femoral neck and spine bone mineral density in 231 women aged 60 years and older who had a low-trauma fracture of the hip, spine, humerus or forearm, and compared them to 448 age-matched women who did not have a fracture. The number of falls in the previous year and the number of adult-age self-reported fractures were also analyzed.

The FRISK score was then assessed in a population-based sample of 600 women. After adjusting for bone mineral density, the risk for fractures was raised by frequent falls, weight increase or previous fractures. The FRISK score predicted 75 percent of fractures in the two years after baseline measurements were taken, and had a specificity of 68 percent.

"The results of our study suggest that an overall assessment of fracture risk with a model that includes a combination of bone mineral density at the hip and spine, together with the number of previous fractures, a falls score, and weight can predict future fracture with good sensitivity and specificity," the authors conclude.

Abstract
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