Alzheimer's Cases Expected to Triple

Study predicts 13.2 million Americans will have it by 2050

(HealthDay is the new name for HealthScoutNews.)

MONDAY, Aug. 18, 2003 (HealthDayNews) -- The number of Americans with Alzheimer's disease will triple by 2050, according to new predictions.

Although the projected figures come as no surprise to those familiar with the brain disorder, one expert calls the new research a "wake-up call" to prevent a crisis.

Currently, 4.5 million older Americans have Alzheimer's disease; the new study says that the figure could balloon to 13.2 million by 2050.

Unless new ways are found to prevent or treat the disease, the dramatic rise in cases is inevitable, says the study's author, although he hopes the prediction won't become reality.

"We don't want these projections to come true," says Dr. Denis A. Evans, director of the Institute for Healthy Aging at Rush-Presbyterian-St. Luke's Medical Center in Chicago. His study is published in the August issue of the Archives of Neurology.

The report come on the heels of other research, also released Monday, that found that four out of five older patients experiencing early symptoms of Alzheimer's or other cognitive disorders are not getting diagnosed or treated by their primary care doctors.

That delay prevents patients from obtaining the benefits of early treatment or the chance to make their own legal and financial decisions when their mind is still able, notes Dr. Sanford Finkel of the Council for Jewish Elderly. Finkel, a clinical professor of psychiatry at the University of Chicago Medical School, presented his study at the 11th Congress of the International Psychogeriatric Association, an organization devoted to geriatric mental health research.

To achieve his Alzheimer's forecast, Evans and his research team first looked at the incidence of Alzheimer's over a four-year period among 3,913 Chicago residents ages 65 and older. They calculated the national prevalence of Alzheimer's and then used Census Bureau data to project the number of cases to the year 2050. The projections, Evans adds, assume that not much progress will be made in combating the disease, for which there is now no cure.

Evans says his estimate is higher than some previous ones partly because "the science of doing these projections has progressed a bit in the last 15 years, so we think these are more accurate." Among other factors, the new techniques take into account the longer life span of Americans as a result of modern medicine.

Sheldon Goldberg, chief executive officer of the Alzheimer's Association, calls the findings "a wake-up call. " He adds: "This is not the first study [to predict the coming increase in cases]. It really validates earlier research that says from a public health standpoint, a crisis is coming."

He quickly adds, "A crisis is actually already here."

The new research points to the need to fund more investigations of prevention and treatment methods, Goldberg says.

Finkel's study, which looked at how adept doctors are at picking up symptoms of cognitive impairment and possible first clues to the disease, was conducted at 11 sites in Chicago and downstate Illinois, evaluating the care of 2,150 patients age 65 and older.

As many as 28 percent showed cognitive impairments -- such as memory problems -- but only in about 6 percent of cases were the problems noted in the medical records.

Alzheimer's patients suffer memory problems that grow progressively worse, are often confused, and can become quite agitated.

Twenty-three percent of the patients studied also showed symptoms of depression, another common condition among the elderly, but less than one-quarter were diagnosed.

"The finding is not going to surprise anyone," says Bill Thies, the Alzheimer Association's vice president of medical and scientific affairs. Evaluating a patient for the cognitive changes that can point to Alzheimer's "takes longer than general practice physicians often have," Thies adds.

More information

For more information on Alzheimer's disease, try the National Institute on Aging or the Alzheimer's Association.

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